Research - Juan David Gelvez

Selected peer-reviewed publications

See the full list of my publications on Google Scholar.

Forthcoming. Predicting Police and Military Violence: Evidence from Colombia and Mexico Using Machine Learning Models. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications - Nature. Working Paper here. Media coverage here.
R&R. Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement: A 23-Year Spatial Regression Analysis in Colombia. (With Leo Bauer). Social Science Quarterly.
R&R.Coca Eradication, Social Mobilization, and Public Opinion: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Colombia. (With Juan C Angulo). Latin American Politics & Society.
R&R. Rewards, Sanctions, and Trust in the Police: Evidence from Colombia. Policing and Society. (With Cesar Mantilla and María P. Nieto) Data and replication code here. Working paper here.
1. Los nadies y las nadies: The Effect of Peacebuilding on Political Behavior in Colombia. Latin American Politics & Society (With Marcus Johnson). Paper here, Slides here, and Code here.
1. Predicting crime in middle-size cities. A Machine Learning model in Bucaramanga, Colombia. URVIO- Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad. FLACSO, Ecuador. (With María P. Nieto and Carlos Rocha) Paper in Spanish here
1. Judicial treatment and pre-trial detention in a sample of arraignment hearings in Bogotá and Cali. In Cuadernos de Economía. (With Andrés Rengifo, Lorena Avila, Lucía Ramírez and Paula Mora). Paper in Spanish here.
1. Which are the determinants associated with the insecurity perception? A statistical and spatial analysis for Bogota, D.C. In Revista Criminalidad. Paper in Spanish here.

Work in progress

Climate Disasters Politics and Policy

Climate Disasters, Deservingness, and Public Opinion about Government Assistance. Pre-analysis plan here
The (In)visibility of Race in Colombia’s Climate Disaster Assistance. (With Isabella Alcañiz) Pre-analysis plan here and Poster here. Working Paper
Weathering the Ballot Box:Retrospective Voting and Climate Disasters in Colombia. Working Paper here.
Who should guide climate policy? Public opinion evidence from Latin America. (With Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham and Flavia Batista). Submitted.

Crime, Police, and Illicit Drugs

Coca Politics: Exposure to Tough-on-Crime Policies, Electoral Accountability, and Public Opinion. Working Paper here. Submitted.
The Politics of Crime Prevention: Evidence From Colombia. Working Paper here. Under-review.
When Do Citizens Reject Tough-on-Crime Measures? Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Brazil. Pre-Analysis Plan Here

Selected policy papers

1. Environmental Impacts of Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank. Work in Progress.
1. Costly norm enforcement through sanctions and rewards: An experiment with Colombian future police officers. Policy Brief here.
1. What works to prevent crime? Effective strategies to improve citizen security policies. Published in Centro de Estudios sobre Seguridad y Drogas, Universidad de Los Andes. Policy paper here.
1. Who are the coca growers? Published in Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP). Policy paper here.
1. How is the substitution of illicit crops going? Challenges, current dilemmas, and the urgency of a consensus Policy paper here.