Selected peer-reviewed publications

See the full list of my publications on Google Scholar.

  • Conditionally Accepted. The Electoral Costs of the War on Drugs. Political Science Research and Methods. Working Paper here.

  • Forthcoming. Who should guide climate policy? Public opinion evidence from Latin America. Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública (RLOP). (With Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham and Flavia Batista).

    1. The Politics of Crime Prevention: Evidence From Colombia. Political Studies. Published paper here. Manuscript here.
    1. Public Opinion on Forced Eradication: The Role of Collective Dissent and Race in Colombia. Latin American Politics & Society. Paper here. (With Juan C Angulo).
    1. Predicting Police and Military Violence: Evidence from Colombia and Mexico Using Machine Learning Models. Nature - Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. Paper here. Media coverage here and here.
    1. Rewards, Sanctions, and Trust in the Police: Evidence from Colombia. Policing and Society. Published paper here. Manuscript here. (With Cesar Mantilla and María P Nieto).
    1. Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement: A 23-Year Spatial Regression Analysis in Colombia. Paper here. (With Leo Bauer). Social Science Quarterly.
    1. Los nadies y las nadies: The Effect of Peacebuilding on Political Behavior in Colombia. Latin American Politics & Society (With Marcus Johnson). Paper here, Slides here, and Code here.
    1. Prediciendo el crimen en ciudades intermedias: un modelo de “machine learning” en Bucaramanga, Colombia. URVIO- Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad. FLACSO, Ecuador. (With María P. Nieto and Carlos Rocha) Paper here
    1. Trato procesal y uso de la detención preventiva en una muestra de audiencias de control de garantías en Bogotá y Cali. In Cuadernos de Economía. (With Andrés Rengifo, Lorena Avila, Lucía Ramírez and Paula Mora). Paper here.
    1. ¿Cuáles determinantes se relacionan con la percepción de inseguridad? Un análisis estadístico y espacial para la ciudad de Bogotá, D. C.. In Revista Criminalidad. Paper here.

Work in progress

Computational Politics

  • Geolocated Polling-Station Panel of Colombian Presidential Elections with Linked Census Neighborhoods, 2006–2022. (With Eduard Martinez, Manuela Muñoz, Andrea Guerrero, and Laura Sinisterra)

  • How Structurally Predictable Is an Election? A Machine-Learning Approach to Territorial Electoral Alignment. (With Alejandro Cardiles, Eduard Martinez, and Manuela Muñoz)

  • Beyond the binary: LLM’s and ordinal coding. (With Oja Pathak, Johanna Birnir, and others)

Crime, Police, and Illicit Drugs

Selected policy papers

    1. Colombia’s New, Old Drug Policy: Reviving a Failed Model. GIGA Focus. Work in Progress.
    1. Drogas ilícitas en Colombia: Los límites de la erradicación y las tareas por hacer. Published by Universidad de Los Andes. Policy Brief here.
    1. Environmental Impacts of Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank.
    1. ¿Cómo votan los colombianos? Comportamiento electoral en las elecciones presidenciales de 2014, 2018 y 2022 a nivel de puesto de votación. Policy Brief here.
    1. Costly norm enforcement through sanctions and rewards: An experiment with Colombian future police officers. Policy Brief here.
    1. What works to prevent crime? Effective strategies to improve citizen security policies. Universidad de Los Andes. Policy paper here.
    1. Who are the coca growers? Fundación Ideas para la Paz and UNODC. Policy paper here.
    1. How is the substitution of illicit crops going? Challenges, current dilemmas, and the urgency of a consensus. Fundación Ideas para la Paz. Policy paper here.

Juan David Gelvez

Research Fellow at GIGA

Qries Hamburg, Germany.

Qries

Qries

Qries @JuanGelvezF

Qries Google Scholar

Qries GitHub