Research - Juan David Gelvez

Work in progress

The (In)visibility of Race in Colombia’s Climate Disaster Assistance. (With Isabella Alcañiz) Pre-analysis plan here and Poster here. Working Paper.
The Pork-Politics of climate disasters.
The Spatial Interplay of Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement: Evidence from Colombia (With Leo Bauer). Submitted.
Weathering the Ballot Box: Blame Avoidance and Natural Disasters in Latin America.

Coca politics. Working Paper here
The Politics of Crime Prevention: Evidence From Colombia. Early Draft here.
Public Attitudes Toward Forced Eradication: Protest, Gender, and Politics in Colombia. (With Juan C Angulo) Under-review.
Predicting Police and Military Misconduct: Evidence from Colombia and Mexico. Working Paper here.
Rewards, Sanctions, and Trust in the Police: Evidence from Colombia. (With Cesar Mantilla and (With María P. Nieto) Data and replication code here. Working paper here.Working Paper.

1. Incentives War: The Consequences of Announcing a Substitution Policy on Coca Cultivation in Colombia. Journal of Illicit Economies and Development (With Matilde Angarita). Paper here.
1. Temporal Twists: The impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Crime Dynamics in Colombia. International Criminology (With María P. Nieto). Paper here.
1. Los nadies y las nadies: The Effect of Peacebuilding on Political Behavior in Colombia. Latin American Politics & Society (With Marcus Johnson). Paper here, Slides here, and Code here.
1. From national to subnational level: How are design citizen’s security local policies in Colombia? Revista de Gestión y Política Pública. CIDE, México. (With Catalina Miranda and María P. Nieto) Paper here
1. Predicting crime in middle-size cities. A Machine Learning model in Bucaramanga, Colombia. URVIO- Latin American Journal of Crime Studies. FLACSO, Ecuador. (With María P. Nieto and Carlos Rocha) Paper here
1. Impact evaluation of the coca crop substitution program in Colombia. In the book “Coca, Cocaína y Violencia”. Univesidad de Los Andes, Colombia. (With Matilde Angarita) Book here
1. Illicit crops, peace agreements, and coca crops’ substitution policy. In the book Coca, Cocaína y Violencia. Univesidad de Los Andes, Colombia. (With Juan Carlos Garzón and Jose Bernal). Book here.

1. Public Policy Analysis and Decision Making in the Military Forces: The Havana Experience. In International Library of Policy Analysis. Policy Press and Bristol University Press. (With Paula Mora, Sebastián Bitar, and Michael Weintraub). Paper here.
1. Judicial treatment and pre-trial detention in a sample of arraignment hearings in Bogotá and Cali. In Cuaderno de Economía Universidad Nacional de Colombia. (With Andrés Rengifo, Lorena Avila, Lucía Ramírez and Paula Mora). Paper here.
1. Which are the determinants associated with the insecurity perception? A statistical and spatial analysis for Bogota, D.C. In Revista Criminalidad, Policía Nacional. Paper here.

1. Costly norm enforcement through sanctions and rewards: An experiment with Colombian future police officers. Policy Brief here.
1. What works to prevent crime? Effective strategies to improve citizen security policies. Published in Centro de Estudios sobre Seguridad y Drogas, Universidad de Los Andes. Policy paper here.
1. Who are the coca growers? Published in Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP). Policy paper here.
1. How is the substitution of illicit crops going? Challenges, current dilemmas, and the urgency of a consensus Policy paper here.